> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://surf-2.gitbook.io/surfliquid-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://surf-2.gitbook.io/surfliquid-docs/vaults/prediction-vaults.md). # Prediction Vaults Prediction Vaults extend Surf's vault architecture to automated prediction market trading on Polymarket. Users deposit USDC into non-custodial vaults on Polygon, select categories and risk levels, and Surf executes trades within Guardian rules. Currently in R\&D with launch planned for later this year. *** #### What Prediction Vaults Do Prediction Vaults continuously analyse prediction markets and execute trades on behalf of users. The user never touches Polymarket directly. No Polymarket account is needed. The entire experience happens inside the Surf interface. **Prediction Vaults perform three core actions:** 1. Scan available prediction markets for high-confidence opportunities 2. Evaluate probability, liquidity and risk before entering any position 3. Execute trades within strict Guardian enforced position limits and exposure caps The user deposits once, selects a category and risk tier, and Surf handles the rest. *** #### Per-User Proxy Wallets Each Surf vault derives a Polymarket compatible proxy wallet using CREATE2. There is no shared execution pool. Every position is fully isolated per user. The proxy wallet uses Polymarket's native wallet pattern. The MPC signer creates scoped EIP-712 orders that can trade but cannot withdraw. This means Surf can execute prediction market trades on behalf of the user without ever having withdrawal authority over the vault. This is the same non-custodial architecture used across all Surf vault types. *** #### Atomic Fee Settlement Surf cannot unilaterally withdraw from user vaults. All fees accrue as liabilities in vault state and settle atomically when the user initiates a deposit or withdrawal. This includes: 1 $SURF accrued per trade as an execution fee 10% performance fee on winning trades Both fees are recorded but not transferred until the user triggers a transaction. This preserves the non-custodial guarantee. If Surf could singularly withdraw even 1 $SURF, the non-custodial claim weakens. *** #### Categories * **Weather** (Phase 1): 34 cities, daily temperature predictions. 74.4% historical win rate during testing. * **Sports** (Phase 1): NBA and NFL markets initially. * **Crypto** (Phase 2): To be introduced after launch validation. *** #### **Risk Tiers** Every Prediction Vault operates under one of three risk tiers that define position sizing, confidence thresholds and exposure limits. * Conservative: 2% position size, 70% minimum confidence, 5% maximum exposure, 10 maximum positions * Balanced: 5% position size, 60% minimum confidence, 10% maximum exposure, 20 maximum positions * Aggressive: 10% position size, 55% minimum confidence, 15% maximum exposure, 30 maximum positions Users select their risk tier at vault creation. The Guardian Layer enforces these parameters on every trade. *** #### Guardian Rules for Prediction Markets Prediction Vaults operate under a dedicated set of Guardian rules in addition to the standard enforcement layer. Market Allowlist: only approved Polymarket markets can be traded Max Exposure: total capital at risk cannot exceed the tier limit Circuit Breaker: execution halts if loss thresholds are breached Position Size: no single position can exceed the tier percentage Liquidity Check: minimum market liquidity required before entry Resolution Filter: markets approaching resolution are excluded $SURF Balance Check: sufficient execution fee balance must exist Max Positions: open position count cannot exceed tier limit Fail-Closed Default: any rule uncertainty results in no action If any single rule fails, the trade is rejected. Nothing moves. The reason is logged. *** #### Why Prediction Vaults Matter Prediction Vaults demonstrate that Surf's architecture is not limited to lending and liquidity. The same vault isolation, Guardian enforcement, MPC signing and atomic execution that powers Lending and Liquidity Vaults extends naturally to an entirely different asset class. For users, this means access to automated prediction market trading with the same non-custodial guarantees and deterministic safety controls they already trust for their savings. For investors, this validates that Surf is a general-purpose execution and control platform, not a single-product application.